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 Post subject: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 18:55 
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Joined: 6/24/08 00:57
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把自己作为小散的一些教训写写,以前也写过,主要是mental方面的


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 19:23 
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首先再次声明,所有内容是为了交流和抛砖引玉。
看到小猪亏钱我难过,希望这些讨论能帮助和我一样的新手。


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 20:25 
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为什么我们喜欢against trend?

今天有人捞银子捞油,这只是一个近的例子。
有人能做好,但不是每个人。

against trend的原因有几个,

第一,trend 如果reverse,通常reward | risk很高
第二,对价格和价值两者混淆
第三,look for thrill or ego,对trade的终极目的不明确
第四,害怕miss the reversal

Miss the reversal is one of the biggest fear, even for experienced traders.

Note that experienced traders like 金宝 and 呆哥 can use scale in and size control to do average down. But that is generally a bad idea for new traders.

The worst part is that it may work for you a few times.


There are several reasons. First, newbies has less mental strength and capital.
Second, they will start to alter execution plan. Third, when trend is there, sometime you have no way to execute even your worst exit strategy.


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 20:45 
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Joined: 7/20/10 21:46
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我老人家再做次雷锋。很简单:
if you can not beat s&p in 2 years in bull market, and can not beat CD in bear market, just quit trading.
很多事情,你就是要承认你没有天分。Bobby Bolden said, "you can not teach speed", if you watch football, you know what I am talking about.
accipiter wrote:
把自己作为小散的一些教训写写,以前也写过,主要是mental方面的


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 21:05 
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你说的有一定道理。 我以前也说过,trading是performance field, 不象当医生教授工程师,一般水平就可以混得还好。不过2年学习时间太短4-5 比较合理。 搞搞中长线可以,其实没必要trading
test3 wrote:
我老人家再做次雷锋。很简单:
if you can not beat s&p in 2 years in bull market, and can not beat CD in bear market, just quit trading.
很多事情,你就是要承认你没有天分。Bobby Bolden said, "you can not teach speed", if you watch football, you know what I am talking about.
accipiter wrote:
把自己作为小散的一些教训写写,以前也写过,主要是mental方面的


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 21:13 
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Joined: 11/1/10 14:51
Posts: 5487
buy dip是件磨练耐心的事。


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 21:19 
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Joined: 11/20/08 22:37
Posts: 3132
ABC 老油条的话要好好领会。


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 21:37 
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Joined: 10/6/07 00:20
Posts: 31826
人和人不一样, 我发现中长线不适合我, trading赚的都填坑了,Crying or Very sad 关键要找对适合自己的方法
accipiter wrote:
你说的有一定道理。 我以前也说过,trading是performance field, 不象当医生教授工程师,一般水平就可以混得还好。不过2年学习时间太短4-5 比较合理。 搞搞中长线可以,其实没必要trading
test3 wrote:
我老人家再做次雷锋。很简单:
if you can not beat s&p in 2 years in bull market, and can not beat CD in bear market, just quit trading.
很多事情,你就是要承认你没有天分。Bobby Bolden said, "you can not teach speed", if you watch football, you know what I am talking about.
accipiter wrote:
把自己作为小散的一些教训写写,以前也写过,主要是mental方面的


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 21:42 
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Joined: 6/24/08 00:57
Posts: 8274
市场不断变化,过去两年中长线就很好
zipcode wrote:
人和人不一样, 我发现中长线不适合我, trading赚的都填坑了,Crying or Very sad 关键要找对适合自己的方法
accipiter wrote:
你说的有一定道理。 我以前也说过,trading是performance field, 不象当医生教授工程师,一般水平就可以混得还好。不过2年学习时间太短4-5 比较合理。 搞搞中长线可以,其实没必要trading
test3 wrote:
我老人家再做次雷锋。很简单:
if you can not beat s&p in 2 years in bull market, and can not beat CD in bear market, just quit trading.
很多事情,你就是要承认你没有天分。Bobby Bolden said, "you can not teach speed", if you watch football, you know what I am talking about.


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 21:49 
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Joined: 6/24/08 00:57
Posts: 8274
你们这些高手都不来帮帮ntx. 我只好乱说话了。 我这个人心软,看不得女人难过。 我老婆深知我的弱点,千错万错她眼睛眨巴眨巴就过去了
狗狗爹 wrote:
ABC 老油条的话要好好领会。


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 22:09 
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Joined: 10/18/07 12:58
Posts: 50204
... 琢磨一下觉得会against trend原因因为起来经常已经错过只好转折既然转折脑子过来然后后面了...

好像这个问题明显因为基本一个方向感觉DT ESEmbarassed

accipiter wrote:
为什么我们喜欢against trend? 今天有人捞银子捞油,这只是一个近的例子。有人能做好,但不是每个人。 against trend的原因有几个, 第一,trend 如果reverse,通常reward | risk很高第二,对价格和价值两者混淆第三,look for thrill or ego,对trade的终极目的不明确第四,害怕miss the reversal Miss the reversal is one of the biggest fear, even for experienced traders. Note that experienced traders like 金宝 and 呆哥 can use scale in and size control to do average down. But that is generally a bad idea for new traders. The worst part is that it may work for you a few times. There are several reasons. First, newbies has less mental strength and capital. Second, they will start to alter execution plan. Third, when trend is there, sometime you have no way to execute even your worst exit strategy.


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 22:18 
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Joined: 11/20/08 22:37
Posts: 3132
这里的人太热衷于 5x, 10x. 这些都是误导。 太害人。 我这个星期搞得很差。 虽然我自认为 抓顶,摸底的本事还是有的,可缺了一个很重要的东西,就是心理承受力。 没XJJ的心理承受力。 结果ES/CL/GC的 short 全被shake出去了。 CL 走在了几乎最高点。 再顶几个小时就是艳阳天了。 10 几万的差别。
accipiter wrote:
你们这些高手都不来帮帮ntx. 我只好乱说话了。 我这个人心软,看不得女人难过。 我老婆深知我的弱点,千错万错她眼睛眨巴眨巴就过去了
狗狗爹 wrote:
ABC 老油条的话要好好领会。


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 22:20 
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Joined: 6/24/08 00:57
Posts: 8274
“DT ES的。”

ES 80%的时间是range,而且有很多不同的pattern。
range的时候顺势就死,trend的时候逆势就死。

这是我为什么做很多个股,因为ES难做。


懒猫 wrote:
... 琢磨一下觉得会against trend原因因为起来经常已经错过只好转折既然转折脑子过来然后后面了...

好像这个问题明显因为基本一个方向感觉DT ESEmbarassed

accipiter wrote:
为什么我们喜欢against trend? 今天有人捞银子捞油,这只是一个近的例子。有人能做好,但不是每个人。 against trend的原因有几个, 第一,trend 如果reverse,通常reward | risk很高第二,对价格和价值两者混淆第三,look for thrill or ego,对trade的终极目的不明确第四,害怕miss the reversal Miss the reversal is one of the biggest fear, even for experienced traders. Note that experienced traders like 金宝 and 呆哥 can use scale in and size control to do average down. But that is generally a bad idea for new traders. The worst part is that it may work for you a few times. There are several reasons. First, newbies has less mental strength and capital. Second, they will start to alter execution plan. Third, when trend is there, sometime you have no way to execute even your worst exit strategy.


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 22:29 
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Joined: 7/20/10 21:46
Posts: 12404
但是搞future也是害人的,其实炒股就是害人。:-)大步分人都不赚钱,一小部分人总在赚钱。就是邓小平同志说的,要让一部分人先富起来。
狗狗爹 wrote:
这里的人太热衷于 5x, 10x. 这些都是误导。 太害人。 我这个星期搞得很差。 虽然我自认为 抓顶,摸底的本事还是有的,可缺了一个很重要的东西,就是心理承受力。 没XJJ的心理承受力。 结果ES/CL/GC的 short 全被shake出去了。 CL 走在了几乎最高点。 再顶几个小时就是艳阳天了。 10 几万的差别。
accipiter wrote:
你们这些高手都不来帮帮ntx. 我只好乱说话了。 我这个人心软,看不得女人难过。 我老婆深知我的弱点,千错万错她眼睛眨巴眨巴就过去了
狗狗爹 wrote:
ABC 老油条的话要好好领会。


 
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 Post subject: Re: 交易市场对新手的陷阱
PostPosted: 5/5/11 22:31 
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Joined: 7/20/10 21:46
Posts: 12404
说了一万次,嘈股票就是炒心理,什么ta/fa都是浮云。
accipiter wrote:
仓位大了就难。2年前我最大一笔size 的 es nq,早了1天,不然,唉。
从那以后,发誓不上那么大的size。

timing 和运气也重要,一旦满仓以后在水下,就很难, 如果是顶部开始建,averge up,
就完全感觉不一样。


狗狗爹 wrote:
这里的人太热衷于 5x, 10x. 这些都是误导。 太害人。 我这个星期搞得很差。 虽然我自认为 抓顶,摸底的本事还是有的,可缺了一个很重要的东西,就是心理承受力。 没XJJ的心理承受力。 结果ES/CL/GC的 short 全被shake出去了。 CL 走在了几乎最高点。 再顶几个小时就是艳阳天了。 10 几万的差别。
accipiter wrote:
你们这些高手都不来帮帮ntx. 我只好乱说话了。 我这个人心软,看不得女人难过。 我老婆深知我的弱点,千错万错她眼睛眨巴眨巴就过去了


 
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