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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 00:32 
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Joined: 4/29/07 01:09
Posts: 6016
OK.

eveready wrote:
非常同意l&l的做法。

Size的大小应该和volitility 成反比, 越是顶或低volitility越大,这时应减小size,保持total risk $ value 和平时一样,不然很容易振出去。

这里指得是future day trade。要是speculate顶和底想gamble一下就是另外结论。总之,risk考虑第一。


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 00:35 
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OK. 

Learning wrote:
这个也是我的感受。VIX 越高, market 越shaky 的时候size 越是要小。

我以前有两次抄底也是大SIZE, full margin, trend day 不原意CUT还不断AD,几乎就是游子昨天的翻版, 最后被IB liquidate,元气大伤。回头看的话,几乎都是在接近大底的时候被liquidate, 如果size 减小,后面INDEX 都上了10% 多,根本就不会亏。

所以我现在的SIZE 都是以最坏的case + swing 来算的。

抄底抓顶其实可以开始小size, confirm 对了后面AU.


eveready wrote:
非常同意l&l的做法。

Size的大小应该和volitility 成反比, 越是顶或低volitility越大,这时应减小size,保持total risk $ value 和平时一样,不然很容易振出去。

这里指得是future day trade。要是speculate顶和底想gamble一下就是另外结论。总之,risk考虑第一。


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 01:17 
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Joined: 8/29/06 10:57
Posts: 6629
wow, I have the same method as l&l

I use option to test top or bottom. If confirmed, I will play future with stop(gain from option).

I don't recommend AD or AU unless u play very small size that u can AD and get out easily.

I believe if your position is stopped, that means your entry is not good. You have to improve.

The best trade is you will not be stopped.

l&l wrote:
更好的选择是:上股票或OPTIONS Very Happy

涛涛 wrote:
sometimes guessing top/bottom is ok.
small losses are ok.

l&l wrote:
Right, That's what i said "最多肉的地方 不在头与脚,而是在中间的屁股或肚子 "Very Happy
Learning wrote:
这个也是我的感受。VIX 越高, market 越shaky 的时候size 越是要小。

我以前有两次抄底也是大SIZE, full margin, trend day 不原意CUT还不断AD,几乎就是游子昨天的翻版, 最后被IB liquidate,元气大伤。回头看的话,几乎都是在接近大底的时候被liquidate, 如果size 减小,后面INDEX 都上了10% 多,根本就不会亏。

所以我现在的SIZE 都是以最坏的case + swing 来算的。

抄底抓顶其实可以开始小size, confirm 对了后面AU.


eveready wrote:
非常同意l&l的做法。

Size的大小应该和volitility 成反比, 越是顶或低volitility越大,这时应减小size,保持total risk $ value 和平时一样,不然很容易振出去。

这里指得是future day trade。要是speculate顶和底想gamble一下就是另外结论。总之,risk考虑第一。


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 01:20 
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Posts: 6629
I think Youzi will remember this time.

Wish you all the best!


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 08:35 
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Joined: 8/27/06 14:30
Posts: 1161
这个帖子好呀!我一直都是在顶部底部震荡的时候赔钱最多,反而下跌途中我一般都还行因为我知道我自己不会short,要下跌,我就旁观为主。timing不准差点,对于股票好点,但是是对于future那差别就太大了。虽然不至于wipe out,我会割肉的,但割起来都是伤筋动骨一次亏的,要很长时间都恢复不过来。尤其是割了以后,等到真正的机会来了,反而chicken。怎么设止损和size的把握我一直很头疼,5mm,6mm,l&l,gamer的经验真的很有帮助。


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 08:41 
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Joined: 7/24/07 22:22
Posts: 27488
我上次(Janurary)一天内从200% profit到-15%就是在大底前一天使劲捞,越cut越捞,捞完再cut, size还大。体会深刻,下次不能再犯了。


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 10:27 
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Joined: 12/12/07 15:43
Posts: 40327
同样的错误和不同样的我也都犯过。有一次SHORT一个股票,被马金靠,整个阿康WIPEOUT约75%。
前两天FANANCIAL CRAZY也让俺吃了一壶。。。
just like 5mm and others said, manage size and cut loss early are very important. cut loss is the most difficult part. 
When not sure, don't force the trade.
YOUZI,不要失去信心,一定能扳回来的。


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 11:53 
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Joined: 6/21/08 16:20
Posts: 5163
unless one really wants to do trading for life, forget about trading.
like ddd56 said, hopeless. true.
if u cannot think about trading 24x7, forget it.


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 12:02 
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专家提醒:个人投资期货有“三忌”

当前股市震荡剧烈,一些个人投资者把投资领域拓展到商品期货市场。国元期货有限责任公司研究员金曙光提醒说,期货投资适合那些有一定资金实力和投资技巧、风险承担能力比较强的投资者,个人投资期货有“三忌”。

  一忌“满仓操作”。期货交易采取的是保证金交易,投资者只要支付10%左右的保证金,就可以买卖该品种了。期货市场的这种“杠杆机制”,提高了资金利用率,让投资者有机会在短期内获得收益翻番可能的同时,也放大了风险,期货市场最忌讳的就是“满仓操作”。

   二忌“只做多不做空”。与目前股票只能单向交易不同,期货交易采用的是双向交易机制,既可先做多(先买后卖),亦可先做空(先卖后买)。很多投资者尤其 是刚涉足期货市场的投资者对于做空机制很不习惯,其实这是一个很好的投资方式。例如农产品价格每年都有一个峰值和谷值,做空机制就为投资者提供了赚取价格 下跌空间的利润。

  三忌“贪多求全”。在选择品种方面,投资者应该重点选择一到两个熟悉的品种进行长期关注,切忌“东打一枪,西放一炮”。

   目前我国已上市的商品期货品种主要以农产品和金属为主。大连商品交易所的大豆、豆粕、玉米,郑州商品期货交易所的小麦、棉花、菜子油,上海期货交易所的 铜、铝、锌等等。各上市品种每手合约价值也是有大有小,有些合约设计得比较大,像上海期货交易所上市的铜,每手合约需要保证金约在37000元。合约价值 最小的是大连商品交易所上市的玉米,每手仅需要保证金约1500元就可以了,非常适合中小散户操作。

-----------------------------
涛涛 wrote:
YZ did not understand the simple three rules and violated all of them.
---a free lesson for all.
以多为耻,以空为荣。
以DT为耻,以等为荣。
以快为耻,以慢为荣。


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 12:21 
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YZ is really amateur, he has at most 3 months experience, i think.


 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 13:34 
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至少3年吧,你看看他找点多准确


涛涛 wrote:
YZ is really amateur, he has at most 3 months experience, i think.



 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 13:52 
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like buy on the exact top?
Paulo wrote:

 

至少3年吧,你看看他找点多准确


涛涛 wrote:
YZ is really amateur, he has at most 3 months experience, i think.



 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 14:50 
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Joined: 1/12/08 00:15
Posts: 1870

跑哥推荐的Eckhardt干过的事:
==== Were there any trades in your experience that proved especially difficult on an emotional level? ====
One day in my first year of trading, I went long soybeans just a few cents from limit-up. The market proceeded to go from limit-up to limit-down without an uptick. It took about three minutes. This display convinced me to get short at limit-down. Two minutes later, the market was limit-up again.
==== What did that experience teach you? ====
It was my first lesson in risk management. I lost more than half my equity on those two trades in five minutes.
==== How did you recover from that loss? ====
Trading small, making a lot of little decisions rather than trying to make a few blockbuster trades.



 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 15:01 
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Joined: 8/23/06 20:40
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ft, that is too specific on his currency/commodity trading, I am not interested in that at all.
在路上 wrote:

跑哥推荐的Eckhardt干过的事:
==== Were there any trades in your experience that proved especially difficult on an emotional level? ====
One day in my first year of trading, I went long soybeans just a few cents from limit-up. The market proceeded to go from limit-up to limit-down without an uptick. It took about three minutes. This display convinced me to get short at limit-down. Two minutes later, the market was limit-up again.
==== What did that experience teach you? ====
It was my first lesson in risk management. I lost more than half my equity on those two trades in five minutes.
==== How did you recover from that loss? ====
Trading small, making a lot of little decisions rather than trying to make a few blockbuster trades.



 
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 Post subject: Re: by Youzhi..
PostPosted: 7/26/08 15:22 
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i am very interested in this story. thanks.
在路上 wrote:

跑哥推荐的Eckhardt干过的事:
==== Were there any trades in your experience that proved especially difficult on an emotional level? ====
One day in my first year of trading, I went long soybeans just a few cents from limit-up. The market proceeded to go from limit-up to limit-down without an uptick. It took about three minutes. This display convinced me to get short at limit-down. Two minutes later, the market was limit-up again.
==== What did that experience teach you? ====
It was my first lesson in risk management. I lost more than half my equity on those two trades in five minutes.
==== How did you recover from that loss? ====
Trading small, making a lot of little decisions rather than trying to make a few blockbuster trades.



 
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