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 Post subject: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 9/2/06 14:56 
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Joined: 8/25/06 14:10
Posts: 655
全部放在这里。欢迎补充。

future day trading rules

 

  1. Gap(intraday) up/down rule: after the first relative big gap (for example, >2p for ER2), there will be a small window (usually less than 10 minutes) for trapped position to cut or for new position to setup, because most time there will be another gap after the small window. Gap means MM's action. Retailers cannot cause gap unless force cut loss.
  2. trend line theory: when trend line break, will have big move. Either break up or down.
  3. extreme theory: market always go to extreme, and trend days usually close at highest or lowest.
  4. failed bounce/pullback theory: a failed bounce will break previous low. A failed pull back will make new high.
  5. round trip: market tend to do round trip. ER2 range usually>30p
  6. 11:00am spike: 11:00am(PST) program trading started to be active, usually there’s spike up/down around 11:00.
  7. AH extreme: AH futures tend to go extreme due to small volumn.
  8. box range: futures most time move within a box. When the upper bound or lower bound break, it move to next box.
  9. neckline theory: for head & shoulder pattern, when neckline break, will have big move.
  10. retest extreme theory: a generalization of rule #2.
  11. No average down or average up.
  12. No short before see red bar, no long before see green bar.
  13. No long on resistence. no short on support.
  14. Early cut rule: when you first time feel panic, it's time to close position. Dont wait to cut until you feel numb.
  15. Early reversal theory: if up/down a lot in the first hour, there's big chance to reverse later. This is the exception to rule #1.
  16. For big news(such as FED, GDP etc), focus on market reaction instead of own interpretion. When market goes to opposite to your analysis, give up your interpretion and follow market.
Check List Before a Trade
  1. Big news out? What's the response? How about volumn?
  2. Oil
  3. TNX
  4. What's the trend? --> draw up or down channel.
  5. What's the resistence?
  6. What's the support?
  7. What's the target?
  8. What's the stop?
Money Managerment are discussed here (Link) .

Thumb of rule based on Kelly criterion:

f
* = fraction of current bankroll to wager;
b = odds received on the wager;
p = probability of winning;
q = probability of losing = 1 − p.

As an example, if a gamble has a 40% chance of winning (p = 0.40), but the gambler receives 2:1 odds on a winning bet (b = 2), the gambler should bet 10% of his bankroll at each opportunity, in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.

For even-money bets (i.e. when b = 1), the formula can be simplified to:

f^* = 2p - 1 . \,\!
one importan pattern about chasing stocks

Look at 3 stocks: AAPL MCRS JOYG
All of them fall into following pattern:

1. Near year low. Current year, may not 52 week low. But anyway not far from 52 week low.
2. Report ER.
3. Was strong stock before.
4. Gap up at open (or AH).
5. Broard market not very bad.

The action should taken is: chase at open next morning.

As example(8/31/2006), JOYG is close to 2006 low, when broard market bounce quite some it's not. Reported good ER in AH yestoday, gap up at open today at 39. It's a chase. It closed at 43.54 and I expect it going higher in the following days. The Sep 40 call was 1.2 at open, high is 4.5. 400% return in one day.


Last edited by 金宝 on 9/2/06 20:46, edited 2 times in total

 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 9/2/06 20:43 
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rule #11 talking about when you are wrong, not when you are right. AU here means when you short, and it's going up, no AU.


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 1/22/07 17:58 
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Quote from Dave_liu:

到3:45左右看看INTRADAY的TREND,如果那个时候不是明显的要REVERSE的话, 而且位置正好在阻力.那就是好时机.比如拿今天来说,782.5算小阻力(我比较急,在782.4就进了,而且还没到345), 783算中阻力, 784就算大阻力了,从早上10点以后反弹的最高就是784(2点过一点).所以如果保守的话等784而不到784(2点以后拉TREND LINE可以看到).783.5是到了的,如果PRESET在783.4空最好,比我的高一点.


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 1/22/07 18:40 
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晕,一点也看不懂Question。没做过二奶和emini,Dave可不可以拿股票来说说。

xiaozhi wrote:
Quote from Dave_liu:

到3:45左右看看INTRADAY的TREND,如果那个时候不是明显的要REVERSE的话, 而且位置正好在阻力.那就是好时机.比如拿今天来说,782.5算小阻力(我比较急,在782.4就进了,而且还没到345), 783算中阻力, 784就算大阻力了,从早上10点以后反弹的最高就是784(2点过一点).所以如果保守的话等784而不到784(2点以后拉TREND LINE可以看到).783.5是到了的,如果PRESET在783.4空最好,比我的高一点.


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 1/22/07 18:49 
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Posts: 92508

这怎么能拿股票来说呢? 这个是指数.指数的统计意义就比股票的要好得多. 股票今天一个NEWS,明天大盘GAP,思路不一样. 

我现在做EMINI还不行.得多练练.

BigFatPig wrote:
晕,一点也看不懂Question。没做过二奶和emini,Dave可不可以拿股票来说说。

xiaozhi wrote:
Quote from Dave_liu:

到3:45左右看看INTRADAY的TREND,如果那个时候不是明显的要REVERSE的话, 而且位置正好在阻力.那就是好时机.比如拿今天来说,782.5算小阻力(我比较急,在782.4就进了,而且还没到345), 783算中阻力, 784就算大阻力了,从早上10点以后反弹的最高就是784(2点过一点).所以如果保守的话等784而不到784(2点以后拉TREND LINE可以看到).783.5是到了的,如果PRESET在783.4空最好,比我的高一点.


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 2/14/07 18:13 
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Using Pivot Points for Predictions

We often hear market analysts or experienced traders talking about an equity price nearing a certain support or resistance level, each of which is important because it represents a point at which a major price movement is expected to occur. But how do these analysts and professional traders come up with these so-called levels? One of the most common methods is using pivot points, and here we take a look at how to calculate and interpret these technical tools.

How to Calculate Pivot Points
There are several different methods for calculating pivot points, the most common of which is the five-point system. This system uses the previous day's high, low and close, along with two support levels and two resistance levels (totaling five price points) to derive a pivot point. The equations are as follows:
R2 = P + (H - L) = P + (R1 - S1)
R1 = (P x 2) - L
P = (H + L + C) / 3
S1 = (P x 2) - H
S2 = P - (H - L) = P - (R1 - S1)
Here, "S" represents the support levels, "R" the resistance levels and "P" the pivot point. High, low and close are represented by the "H", "L" and "C" respectively. (Note that the high, low and close in 24-hour markets [such as forex] are often calculated using New York closing time [4:00 p.m. EST] on a 24-hour cycle. Limited markets [such as the NYSE] simply use the high, low and close from the day's standard trading hours.)

Take a look at the following example of the five-point system, which illustrates a projection of Microsoft's stock movement. Note the pivot point and the support and resistance levels.


Chart provided by Yahoo! Finance
Another common variation of the five-point system is the inclusion of the opening price in the formula:
P = ((Today's O) + Yesterday's (H + L + C)) / 4
Here, the opening price, "O", is added to the equation. Note that the opening price for foreign exchange markets is simply the last period's closing price. The supports and resistances can then be calculated in the same manner as the five-point system, except with the use of the modified pivot point.

Yet another pivot point system was developed by Tom DeMark, a famous technical analyst and president of Market Studies, Inc. This system uses the following rules:
As you can see, there are many different pivot-point systems available. Some popular ones include as many as nine different price levels; meanwhile, others predict only one pivot point, and no additional levels of support or resistance.


Interpreting and Using Pivot Points
When calculating pivot points, the pivot point itself is the primary support/resistance. This means that the largest price movement is expected to occur at this price. The other support and resistance levels are less influential, but may still generate significant price movements.

Pivot points can be used in two ways. The first way is for determining overall market trend: if the pivot point price is broken in an upward movement, then the market is bullish, and vice versa. Keep in mind, however, that pivot points are short-term trend indicators, useful for only one day until they need to be recalculated. The second method is to use pivot point price levels to enter and exit the markets. For example, a trader might put in a limit order to buy 100 shares if the price breaks a resistance level. Alternatively, a trader might set a stop-loss for his active trade if a support level is broken.

Conclusion
Pivot points are yet another useful tool that can be added to any trader's toolbox. It enables anyone to quickly calculate levels that are likely to cause price movement. The success of a pivot-point system, however, lies squarely on the shoulders of the trader, on his or her ability to effectively use the pivot-point systems in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis. These other technical indicators can be anything from MACD crossovers to candlestick patterns - the greater the number of positive indications, the greater the chances for success.


By Justin Kuepper

Justin Kuepper has many years of experience in the market as an active trader and a personal retirement accounts manager. He spent a few years independently building and managing financial portals before obtaining his current position with Accelerized New Media, owner of SECFilings.com, ExecutiveDisclosure.com and other popular financial portals. Justin continues to write on a freelance basis, covering both finance and technology topics.


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 2/14/07 18:14 
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Pivot point analysis in stock trading

By Clif Droke
©2002 Publishing Concepts

[size=-1]The object of trading in stocks for the average trader is to realize capital gains by following price trends. Price trends in technical analysis are identified in a number of ways utilizing a variety of technical tools, most notably the trend line. But equally important for the stock trader is the identification of significant turning points, or pivotal points, when price trends reverse course and change from up to down, or from down to up. Your chances of profiting from stock prices trends will be greater if you can quickly identify these turning points and jump on board just as the new trend is beginning. In this article we will focus on two basic, yet extremely effective, ways of finding pivot points in stock charts.
[size=-1]A pivot point, classically defined, is the price at which the direction of price movement changes.[size=-1]1[size=-1] By looking at the high, low and closing values of a stock's price, you can calculate the next day (or hour's) pivot point as well as identify potential support and resistance levels.
[size=-1]Potential (as distinguished from actual) pivot points can be easily seen on stock charts by even casual observers. It is important to note this distinction, because if all *potential* pivot points became actual changes of trend then anyone could make money in stock trading easily. As anyone experienced in this business knows, nothing comes easy when dealing with stocks. Therefore it will do well to keep in mind that most *potential* pivot points are just that - just dips or blips on the price chart until an actual trend reversal takes place.
[size=-1]The great trading past masters, including W.D. Gann, Richard Wyckoff, et al, always emphasized the importance of beginning stock price analysis with the longest timeframe possible (within reason). For instance, if your objective in trading stocks is the very short-term (defined as a few days to as many as three months), you will be tempted to ignore the longer-term timeframes in stock charting. This is a normal reaction among traders, yet one that has led to a great many downfalls and missed profits. Let's pick a random stock as an example, one that few have ever heard of, yet one that has a reliable trading history and adequate liquidity. For this article we chose Aviall, Inc. (AVL:NYSE), an airplane manufacturer. Aviall is a rather low-priced stock, yet not so low that it classifies as a "penny" stock or micro-cap. It actually has a small institutional following and is fairly reliable for trend-following purposes as well as short-term swing trading.
[size=-1]It is this author's personal opinion (bolstered by experience) that the starting point for this type of stock trading should go back at least four years. I am a firm believer that the 4-year, or "Presidential," cycle should be the starting point for short-term support/resistance and pivot point analysis since it is always important to know where a stock stands within the context of the 4-year cycle. All stocks respond to this emphatic cycle to some degree or another and it is probably the smallest of all long-term cycles that has great significance to most actively-traded stocks. Since the 4-year cycle bottoms in late 2002, let's go back to the previous 4-year bottom in late 1998. In doing so, we bring up the 4-year weekly chart of Aviall and already we see some things worth noting.


First, notice where Aviall bottomed in the previous 4-year cycle bottom in 1998 (November is typically when the 4-year cycle bottoms). It bottomed around $10 and this was confirmed by a double bottom at this same level in the first few weeks of 1999. Fast-forward four years later. At the time this article is being written (late July 2002) the four year cycle is about 3-4 months from bottoming and notice where Aviall is relative to the last 4-year cycle floor of $10. It's very close to testing that important level once again.
[size=-1]Although Aviall currently trades near $12, it came very near to testing the $10 benchmark earlier this week in late July and is not out of the water yet as there may still be another decline to test $10 before a bottom is in. Notice the extremely heavy volume around the $14 area that has developed over the past several weeks, even as Aviall was making a run on its three-year highs. This high-volume reversal qualifies as a pivot point since Aviall's price trend reversed below $14 after a failed attempt at crossing it. The extreme trading volume that accompanied it only confirms the turning point. This area should be marked on the chart as a legitimate pivot point since not only did Aviall stall at this area, but actually reversed as well. A further decline to $10 will only confirm the pivot at $14.
[size=-1]The fact that Aviall has a history of declining into the final few months of the 4-year cycle (known as the "hard down" phase in cycle parlance) is worth noting. Not only was there a steep decline from the second quarter of 1998 to when the last 4-year cycle bottomed later that same year, but Aviall also declined heavily into the final two quarters of 1994, the previous 4-year cycle. True to its trading history, Aviall is once again being pressured under the influence of the falling 4-year cycle.
[size=-1]Another consideration when studying pivot points is this: not only are those clearly-defined "V-shaped" reversals considered as pivotal points, but so too are the not-too-obvious reversals, the kind that can only be noted when going back over a long period of time and looking at levels where price has reversed time and time again. Once again, the $10 level takes on added significance as a pivot point in Aviall. Take a look at the 10-year monthly chart and notice how many times the price reversed either up or down, or else stalled for considerable lengths of time, when approaching the $10 level. In fact, a case could be made that $10 is the level of equilibrium for Aviall, the place where supply and demand are in relative balance. Just about all the major price swings have come off of $10 over the past decade.


So now that Aviall is currently under pressure beneath its most recent price pivot of $14 and apparently headed for another test $10, it will be critical for the trader to observe how Aviall reacts upon reaching this important technical level. A failure to find support above $10 (preferably accompanied by heavy volume) should be viewed as a potential point for selling short, and an outright failure of $10 to hold in the weeks and months leading up to the November timeframe should be treated as a confirmed sell short entry point. Thus $10 becomes an important pivot point in Aviall once again.

The famed trader Jesse Livermore made note of the importance of going back over the past history of a stock in order to locate its pivotal points when he wrote:

"It is when you set down prices in your [chart] and observe the patterns that the prices begin to talk to you. All of a sudden you realize that the picture you are making is acquiring a certain form. It is striving to make clear a situation that is building up. It suggests that you go back over your records and see what the last movement of importance was under a similar set of conditions. It is telling you that by careful analysis and good judgment you will be able to form an opinion. The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements."
Probably the simplest way to identify pivot points is to use some form of the basic trend line breakout. This is technical analysis in its purest sense and when performed properly will bring profits to a trader more times than not. Of course, the classical trend line penetration method requires patience and discipline, virtues that all too many traders lack. Let's explore this method.

Using Aviall's 4-year weekly chart we have drawn four basic trend lines off its all-time price high of July 1999 at around $19. Major price peaks should always be the starting point for long-term trend line analysis. From the long slide in mid-1999 into 2001, we can draw at least three distinctive downward trend lines, all starting from the 1999 high. Granted, there may be slight variations in how one traders draws a trend line compared to another, but the rule that should be followed by all is: [size=-1]a.) start with the highest point in terms of price, and [size=-1]b.) connect as many secondary highs as you can; the greater the number of times the price line touches the trend line without breaking it, the more legitimate it is.


From 1999 through January 2001, Aviall traced out what is known in technical parlance as a triple or "fan line" retracement, breaking through three consecutive declining trend lines. It is important to note that each time a trend line was broken there was a conspicuous increase in trading volume, which is essential for confirming a trend line breakout. These trend line breakouts and high volume spikes, when taken together, constitute pivot points.
[size=-1]A fourth trend line can also be drawn off the 1999 high to the trend line penetration in March-April 2002, which was also accompanied by a volume spike. From there, Aviall rallied impressively up into early July before meeting with heavy resistance around $14 and then reversing. As we mentioned earlier, the $14 area also constitutes a pivot point based on the trend reversal and extremely heavy trading volume. All that remains for the trader to watch is how Aviall responds between its current price and the critical $10 pivot. How Aviall responds to this pivot point will likely be the basis for how it trades for the remainder of 2002. In a nutshell, this is really what pivot point analysis is all about - locating significant trend reversals and observing how price responds to these levels and to past trend reversal areas.
Sources:
1. Gopalakrishnan, Jayanthi, "Pivot Points," Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, copyright 2001.
2. Livermore, Jesse, How to Trade Stocks, Traders Press, 2001.
--Clif Droke
July 27, 2002


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 2/14/07 19:07 
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好像是不错的动西,但是暂时看不明白,先收藏起来吧!!



 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 2/20/07 00:19 
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http://www.fortuneseeds.com/viewtopic.php?t=3532
Save me a lot of time to type and learn something new too!
如何看level 2 (转载)

偶尔在股飞论坛上发现一篇文章,与我走的路相同,他还差2步就是我今天的成果了,看他贴的时间,己一年多了,未找到他的近期贴.现全文转贴在此.

借花献佛,供有心人士参考.....

--- james ---



曾经有人提到如何看level 2.

一点野路子, 不写下来自己也忘了. 如果误导了就当灌水吧.

看实盘不仅做momentum需要, 做swing trade 甚至对 long term 找个好的入场点也有帮助.

Level2 看起来就象下面的link:
http://daytrading.about.com/library/weekly/aa092099a.htm#LevelII

左边是bid, 右边是ask. 每行是一个order. 包括MM的代码, 价位, 和手数. 同一价位的单子用同一颜色来表示. 哪边同样的颜色靠下, 哪边的单子下得多, 一目了然.

Island的数据类似. 但是没有MM的代码, 却有数字在左右栏下面, 说明除了列表内的单子, 还有多少下单.

我总是也只能用最苯的方法来观察, 但还是要综合起来考虑:

1. 如果哪一边的单子多, 说明哪一边的力量大. 这是self explain的.

2. 但是要看每一笔的手数. 单笔单子数额大, 更有可能是大户或庄稼在出货或吃货. 狼少有一篇关于观察单笔成交的贴子, 请谁找到了帖在这里. Smile

3. 还要看单子数目的变化. 如果一边单子多, 但另一边在增加, 说明看多或看空的人逐渐在增多.

4. 如果卖单多于买单, 不论单笔手数多少, 但价格并不下降, 而且缓慢攀升, 说明有人在吃货, 后市看好. 反过来则看跌.

5. 如果下降缓慢, 但有迅速拉高, 特别是在几秒钟内在某一价位(比如$30的股票, $30~$30.50)的单子全部被吃掉, 即便今天不涨, 转天必定跳空高开.

6. 如果成交缓慢, 而且bid/ask之间价差(spread)较大, 要等. MM还没决定何去何从.

7. 骗线. 如果卖单里有一笔超级大单, 卖单也很多, 但股价下跌并不多, 而且当买盘逼近这个卖单的时候, 这个单子突然被撤掉了. 往往是庄稼的"盖板". 货还没吃够. 往往这时候股价会上一台阶, 然后再照此办理.

8. 但小心如果这个大单是被逐渐吃掉的, 买力很强而股价变化不大, 是庄稼出货.

9. 如果大单被一口吞掉, 则情况如 5.

10. 结合实时图表, 可以互相辅助判断是骗线还是真实形态.

11. 通过MM代码可以观察从某一MM的进出情况. 但肉眼不容易判断. 从同一个MM出来的单子不一定都是机构自己的, 如果MM是broker, 会有其客户的单子. 但机构的单子往往会比较大, 要结合单笔成交来判断. 最好是有程序.

请指正.
_________________
量大福大.
TRADER的第一原则就是遵守原则. 不要多做, 要稳做, 耐心等待机会, 机会来了就绝不手软.
来之慎,去之慎,来去有命忌喜恨. 富也平,贵也平,富贵在天何输赢.

上一次由老道于星期三 十二月 24, 2003 3:54 下午修改,总共修改了1次


 
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PostPosted: 2/20/07 00:27 
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到底是谁原创?


 
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PostPosted: 2/20/07 00:29 
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feel it is  老道
PENGZN wrote:
到底是谁原创?


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 2/26/07 21:39 
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This post is good for stocks. 
But to be used on futures I have some concerns
Lets see an example, the currencies.
What you can see for bid/ask size and trading volume is for "currency futures" not the cash exchange. 
Many times the bid/ask size looked no clue from futures trading. But it's a reflection of cash markets' trading. (cash market does not have a "volume" or I did not figure out).
Same observasion for commodities. 

ETF and indices may be better.


BTW, anyone who talks to 老道, please pass my gratings to him.
He's a  big man, but seems it was not his time yet
xiaozhi wrote:
http://www.fortuneseeds.com/viewtopic.php?t=3532
Save me a lot of time to type and learn something new too!
如何看level 2 (转载)

偶尔在股飞论坛上发现一篇文章,与我走的路相同,他还差2步就是我今天的成果了,看他贴的时间,己一年多了,未找到他的近期贴.现全文转贴在此.

借花献佛,供有心人士参考.....

--- james ---


4. 如果卖单多于买单, 不论单笔手数多少, 但价格并不下降, 而且缓慢攀升, 说明有人在吃货, 后市看好. 反过来则看跌.

5. 如果下降缓慢, 但有迅速拉高, 特别是在几秒钟内在某一价位(比如$30的股票, $30~$30.50)的单子全部被吃掉, 即便今天不涨, 转天必定跳空高开.

8. 但小心如果这个大单是被逐渐吃掉的, 买力很强而股价变化不大, 是庄稼出货.

9. 如果大单被一口吞掉, 则情况如 5.

请指正.
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量大福大.
TRADER的第一原则就是遵守原则. 不要多做, 要稳做, 耐心等待机会, 机会来了就绝不手软.
来之慎,去之慎,来去有命忌喜恨. 富也平,贵也平,富贵在天何输赢.

上一次由老道于星期三 十二月 24, 2003 3:54 下午修改,总共修改了1次


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 2/26/07 21:47 
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Joined: 10/14/06 21:45
Posts: 369
Agree. IB claims hidden order and iceburg order type. If what they claimed is true, level 2 can not see these orders and they are usually big.

[quote="huaidan"] This post is good for stocks. 
But to be used on futures I have some concerns
Lets see an example, the currencies.
What you can see for bid/ask size and trading volume is for "currency futures" not the cash exchange. 
Many times the bid/ask size looked no clue from futures trading. But it's a reflection of cash markets' trading. (cash market does not have a "volume" or I did not figure out).
Same observasion for commodities. 
quote]


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 8/25/07 01:40 
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Joined: 8/5/07 20:13
Posts: 40600
第一个帖子是精华啊。


 
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 Post subject: Re: Day Trading Rule
PostPosted: 8/25/07 02:29 
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Joined: 4/29/07 01:09
Posts: 6016

看见发哥这么说,赶紧存下来,仔细看看



 
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