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 Post subject: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/2/09 20:35 
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Updated: 06-Jul-09 12:10 ET
 
Consumer Still Down and Out
 

Second quarter GDP will decline at a much slower rate than the previous two quarters. Real GDP growth may even level off in the second half of the year. A true recovery, however, will be constrained by sluggish consumer spending trends.

The Key to Economic Growth

Consumer spending or, more precisely, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), makes up about 70% of GDP. (The retail sales report is only a small portion of overall PCE).

Until there is steady growth in PCE, there will not be the solid economic growth of a full economic recovery.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, real (inflation adjusted) PCE fell at a 4.3% annual rate. That was the major reason that real GDP plunged at a 6.3% annual rate.

Real PCE actually rebounded in the first quarter of this year and posted a 1.4% annual rate of growth. The reason that real GDP fell at a 5.5% annual rate was that businesses cut back severely on investment and inventories.

Business investment is now starting to level off, as evidenced by recent improvements in factory orders. That will help produce a slower rate of decline in GDP in the second quarter, and in the second half of this year.

Until consumer spending picks up, however, overall GDP growth will be constrained to near flat. There is little sign that consumer spending will pick up any time soon.

Consumer Spending Trends

Here are the annual rates of change in PCE over recent quarters, with our forecast for the next quarter:

  Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09
PCE 0.9 1.2 -3.8 -4.3 1.4 -0.5e

As can be seen, consumer spending plunged in the second half of last year (when GDP first started declining as well, despite the NBER's assertion that the recession started in late 2007).

PCE bounced back in the first quarter of this year, boosted by strong seasonal factors and a push of some spending into January from the traditional holiday season.

It will be negative again in the second quarter.

The monthly data show a 0.1% decline in April and a 0.2% increase in May but that still leaves the level below the first quarter average.

Consumer spending trends are flat.

The Outlook for Consumer Spending

There is little reason to expect consumer spending to pick up in the months ahead.

Employment levels continue to decline sharply.

The decline of 467,000 in nonfarm payrolls for June pulled the rug out from under the belief that the job market was improving. This is a huge decline in payrolls. It exceeds the largest decline of 325,000 in the 2000-2001 recession by a large amount.

As noted in the June 15 Big Picture column, payrolls will keep declining until weekly unemployment claims drop to 350,000 a week or below. They are still running at over 600,000 a week.

Payroll gains may be as much as a year away.

To make matters worse, wage gains are gone.

The June payroll data showed that hourly earnings were flat for the second time in three months. This is startling.

Average wages almost always go up. There are at least some raises throughout the economy to offset declines or a change in the mix of jobs.

Here are the trends in average hourly earnings:

  Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Wages 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

The year-over-year change in hourly earnings is just 2.7% and falling. The annual rate of increase the past three months is just 0.8%. Such modest gains can easily be eaten up by inflation.

Lower employment levels and meager wage gains result in an overall loss of buying power for consumers.

These factors will restrain consumer spending over the second half of this year. Our forecasts are that PCE will decline at about a 0.3% annual rate in the third quarter, and be flat in the fourth quarter.

What It All Means

The poor outlook for consumer spending will hamper recovery efforts.

A turnaround in business investment often leads economic recovery. This cycle, however, deleveraging of debt and continued poor credit market conditions will restrain business investment.

It is possible that real GDP posts a gain in either the third or fourth quarter of this year based on an inventory swing or a bounce in residential construction, but the underlying foundation of the economy remains weak.

Until there are prospects for a pickup in consumer spending, the "green shoots" in the economy simply reflect the housing market, auto sales, and other selected sectors hitting bottom.

There is not yet any sign that consumer spending or a sustainable recovery that will recapture lost ground is on the horizon.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/2/09 22:18 
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Monday, July 27, 2009

Is 2009 Like 2002?

I have often thought that the 2009 rally resembles the rally off the September 11, 2001 lows that lasted into March, 2002. Even though the causes of the "crisis" are different, there are many noteworthy similarities.

In both cases, the bear market had been going on for greater than a year, and like then, investors are now hopeful that the worst is behind us. In the after math of 9/11, there was a lot of hope that America will bounce back. Hey, "we always do" is the phrase. "America is great. America is strong." (And I don't doubt our resolve as citizens in this country, but feel good rah rah is not going to get it done when we have real problems to face.) But by March, 2002, economic reality set in leading to one vicious head fake that led to new lows and a more solid base to launch a new bull market.

Is 2009 setting up like 2002? Will economic reality set in? Is the worst really behind us?

The short answer is that the jury is still out on this rally. It has been strong. It looks good as prices breakout to new 9 month highs, but the bulls remain hopeful that the all knowing, all seeing stock market has a crystal ball that can see those things that us normal folks can't see: better economic times ahead. Most would agree that the economic landscape is frought with landmines.

Investors are clearly under the assumption that the worst is behind us. But as we found out in 2002 for stock prices, the worst was not behind us. Back then, the economy had bottomed as the recession had officially ended in November, 2001, but the market's bottom was much lower. Currently, signs are pointing to a bottom in the economy as in "things" are not getting worse, and yet with unemployment still rising, we could even argue this point. But I know we can agree that "not getting worse" doesn't mean that they are going to get better either, and this is were investors remain hopeful.

Like 2002, 2009 finds the Federal Reserve extremely accommodative. Liquidity remains abundant. Like 2002, the leading economic indicators in 2009 are improving. Like 2002, the S&P500 is above its 200 day moving average. Like 2002, we find prices on the S&P500 having closed above its simple 10 month moving average. Yes, the similarities are there.

The S&P500 rally in 2001 and 2002 went from the low on September 21 to a high on March 19. It lasted 123 trading days. From low to high the percentage gain was 21%. The currently rally has gone on 98 trading days since March 6, 2009. Through Friday, the percentage gain on the S&P500 has been 43%! Rather than say that such strength is just a sign of new bull market, I could argue it is just mean reversion of a deeply oversold market.

Technically, the current rally is hitting new highs while the 2002 rally ended in a triple top. See figure 1 for a daily graph comparing 2002 (orange line) to 2009 (blue line). This is a clear difference - new highs (2009) v. failure to make new highs (2002).

Figure 1. 2002 (orange) v. 2009 (blue) / daily

For now the current rally has come a long way. A lot of hope is built in. Some may call this "the wall of worry" as the markets continue to climb in the face of bad news. Technically, I look at a market that has been driven higher by short covering -i.e., the "this time is different" scenario - and where stocks are for renting not owning.

I still believe that this time period will prove to be a bear market rally, but in my mind, it doesn't matter what we call it anyway. Simply put this is just not the time or place to jump in with abandon as it is difficult to see how we get there (secular bull market) from here.

Does this mean we re-test the March 9, 2009 lows? I think we are a long way from seeing that happen. Stocks would have to move lower, and of course, if they move lower, investor sentiment will become bearish. This will be a buy signal. If this buy signal fails to produce a sustainable tradeable rally, then there is risk that the markets could retest their March, 2009 lows. As I stated, this is a long ways off.

Is 2009 shaping up like 2002? Possibly. As stocks are hitting new highs, investors certainly have put a lot of hope in a recovery that has yet to materialize.


 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/3/09 11:56 
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Global Markets in Review: Forwards and Upwards for Risky Assets:
For some reason the lyrics of Electric Light Orchestra’s classic, Livin’ Thing, keep resounding in my head: “You took me, ooh, woah, higher and higher, baby. It’s a livin’ thing … ” Followed by: “It’s a terrible thing to lose … ” But let me get on to the review of the financial markets …

Investors (or should I say “Johnny-come-latelies”?) last week again favored the reflation trade on the back of better-than-expected U.S. earnings announcements and economic data, indicating that the trough of the recession might be behind us, or at least be stabilizing at depressed levels.

Newsweek’s cover declared: “The recession is over”, but a footnote stated “Good luck surviving the recovery”, implying a hard and treacherous slog ahead - note the pin below the “liquidity-inflated” balloon.

02-08-09-01

Tempering the bullish sentiment, David Rosenberg (Gluskin Sheff & Associates) commented as follows on Friday’s announcement of a 1.0% (quarter on quarter annualized) contraction in Q2’s real GDP:

While we are past the most pronounced part of the downturn, it may still be premature to call for the end of the recession merely because of the prospect of a positive third-quarter GDP result. After all, we saw GDP advance at a 1.5% annual rate in last year’s second quarter, and if memory serves us correctly, the NBER did not subsequently declare the end of the recession. And even if the recession is ending, as we saw in 2002, that does not guarantee a durable rally in risk assets. Sustainability is the key, and it remains the wild card.

02-08-09-02

Source: Ed Stein, July 31, 2009.

Many global stock market indices reached new highs for the year during the course of the week, and the S&P 500 Index closed in on the roundophobia 1,000 level. Other beneficiaries of investors’ continued interest in risky assets included commodities, oil, gold (rebounding strongly after a midweek sell-off of $24 an ounce), high-yielding currencies and corporate bonds. On the other hand, the U.S. greenback remained out of favor and the Dollar Index closed the week at its lowest level for the year as investors shunned safe-haven assets.

The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below - a set of numbers that again indicates investors’ increased risk appetite. In the case of government bonds, a lukewarm response to the U.S. GDP report took the edge off a poor response to the massive issuance of paper by the Treasury.

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-03

Source: StockCharts.com

A summary of the movements of major global stock markets for the past week, as well as various other measurement periods, is given in the table below. As the second-quarter corporate results in the U.S. came in thick and fast, the American and other markets extended their rallies to three straight weeks in most instances. As a matter of fact, if not for the down week of the Dublin ISEQ Index, the entire table would have been green. But then again, “green shoots” seem to be frowned upon by many pundits.

The MSCI World Index (+1.7%) and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+2.5%) both made headway last week to take the year-to-date gains to +13.5% and an imposing +48.8% respectively.

As seen from the table, July was a solid month for stock markets with all the major indices recording positive returns. The Dow Jones Industrial Index had its best month since 2002 and the S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite Index and Russell 2000 Index all recorded a fifth successive monthly gain, but were trumped by the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index that notched up seven consecutive positive months.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

02-08-09-04

Stock market returns for the week ranged from top performers such as the Czech Republic (+8.7%), Kazakhstan (+8.5%), Turkey (+8.2%), Indonesia (+6.3%) and Kyrgyzstan (+5.8%) to Slovakia (-6.3%), Greece (-3.6%), Nepal (-3.0%), Ecuador (-2.2%) and Macedonia (-1.5%) at the other end of the scale.

The Shanghai Composite Index has surged 87.4% in 2009 as $1.1 trillion of bank loans and government spending stimulated economic recovery. Notwithstanding its gain for the week, the Index plunged by 5.0% on Wednesday - its largest decline in eight months - on speculation that the government might curb inflows into the stock market. “The government is worried that this bubble is becoming too big so they’re going to cut credit growth by probably half in the second half,” remarked former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist Andy Xie. “I think the property and stock markets will come under pressure around October,” he said in a Bloomberg interview.

Of the 97 stock markets I keep on my radar screen, a majority of 74% (last week: 82%) recorded gains, 22% showed losses and 4% remained unchanged. (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements, as supplied by Emerginvest.)

John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that as far as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are concerned, the winners for the week included KBW Regional Banking (KRE) (+11.1%), MarketVectors Indonesia (IDX) (+9.2%), PowerShares Global Gold and Precious Metals (PSAU), and United States Gasoline (UGA) (+6.7%).

At the bottom end of the performance ranking, ETFs included “all things short” such as ProShares Short Financial (SEF) (-3.6%), ProShares Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ) (-3.1%) and ProShares Short Russell 2000 (RWM) (-2.3%).

As far as the thawing of the credit crisis is concerned, junk bond yields continued declining, as shown by the Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Index (and also by the good performance of the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)). The Index dropped by 57.8% to 922 from its record high of 2,182 on December 15, meaning the spread between high-yield debt and comparable U.S. Treasuries was 922 basis points on Friday. Considerable progress has been made and high-yield spreads “only” need to fall another 7.4% to reach the “pre-Lehman” level (854 basis points).

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-05

Source: Merrill Lynch Global Index System

The quote du jour this week comes from Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) who said:

I’m reading and listening to an awful lot of drivel these days. Every analyst has his own scenario, and all seem anxious to broadcast their personal opinions. In this business, there comes a time when the situation is so complex that the most honest thing to do is simply to admit that you don’t know what the hell is going on. The best thing to do is to keep your mouth shut and await developments.

(Also read Barry Ritholtz’s related post on “Analyzing the analyzers“.)

Other news is that Washington hosted a U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue, as the Chinese are increasingly focusing on America’s deficit, the value of the U.S. dollar and the implications for their Treasury holdings. Interestingly, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet last week contracted for the second consecutive week. “Do you think Ben assured Chinese officials earlier this week that the Fed was reducing its balance sheet?” asked Bill King (The King Report).

Also, the U.S. House of Representatives on Friday approved a $2 billion extension of the government’s car sales incentive program, “Cash for Clunkers”, while the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) closed four more banks on Friday, bringing the tally of U.S. bank failures in 2009 to 68 (93 since the beginning of the recession).

Next, a tag cloud of all the articles I read during the past week. This is a way of visualizing word frequencies at a glance. Key words such as “bank”, “economic”, “market”, “prices”, “growth”, “China” and “Fed” featured prominently.

02-08-09-06

The key moving-average levels for the major U.S. indices, the BRIC countries and South Africa (from where I am writing this post) are given in the table below. All the indices trade above their respective 50- and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day lines are also in all instances above the 200-day lines and therefore not threatening the bullish “golden crosses” established when the 50-day averages broke upwards through the 200-day averages.

Importantly, the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 Index last week turned up for the first time since January 2008, after being breached upwards by the Index in early June. The 200-day line - generally seen as a key indicator distinguishing between a primary bull and bear market - is now trending higher for all the indices included in the table, with the exception of the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT) and the Russian Trading System Index.

The June highs and July lows are also given in the table as these levels define a support area for a number of the indices.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

02-08-09-07

When considering monthly data, three momentum-type oscillators (RSI, MACD and ROC) are reversing course for the first time since the sell signals of 2007 and now either indicate buy signals (or are getting close to one in the case of MACD).

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-08

Source: StockCharts.com

The bulk of the Q2 earnings reports in the U.S. are now in and 71% of the companies have so far reported better-than-expected earnings - one of the highest quarterly readings over the last ten years and by far the highest since the bear market began in late 2007 (albeit largely as a result of cost cutting negating a decline in revenues).

We’ve now had two straight quarters where the ‘beat’ rate has increased quarter over quarter, meaning analysts overestimated earnings to the downside. This is a very positive sign for the market at the moment … ,” said Bespoke.

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-09

Source: Bespoke, July 31, 2009.

Expectations for the next earnings season will be high and whether these are met will be determined by the extent of the economic recovery. David Rosenberg:

… What should matter most for stocks is nominal GDP - price multiplied by volume. Indeed, the chart below illustrates the case - the rate of change in the S&P 500 ultimately tracks the trend-line in nominal GDP growth.

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-10

Source: Gluskin Sheff - Lunch with Dave, July 31, 2009.

I now know why I keep thinking of those ELO lyrics - it’s the stretched valuations that bother me. Based on operating earnings (i.e. stripping out everything that is bad), the historical price/earnings (PE) multiple of the S&P 500 is 24.6; using reported earnings the figure shoots up to a giddy 777.5! Getting past the loss-making fourth quarter of 2008 and calculating prospective multiples through December 31, 2010, reduces the valuations to 17.8 and 32.9 respectively - still hardly the type of valuations that will inspire one to be a buyer across the board. (The earnings estimates are courtesy of Standard & Poor’s.)

Kevin Lane (Fusion IQ) said:

We have been saying for a while now that the market would likely work higher as sentiment was more doubting than embracing, suggesting that many still had not deployed a lot of capital. That said, we now believe that investors who let the market run away from them or were only partially invested are finally coming into the pool. The new entrants could certainly fuel things (i.e. new buying power) a little bit further before we have another corrective wave. That said, we think in the not too distant future and a bit higher from these levels there will be an opportunity to make sales before a late summer/fall correction.

Looking at the next few weeks, I am of the opinion that stock markets have run away from fundamental reality and that a pullback/consolidation looks likely. Taking a slightly longer-term view, I think we are in a (possibly lengthy) bottoming-out phase as far as slow-growth (OECD) countries are concerned, but already in new (potentially volatile) uptrends regarding high-growth emerging and commodities-related markets.

For more discussion on the direction of financial markets, see my recent posts “Stock markets - secondary or primary bull?,” “How to interpret the Dow Theory bull signal, according to Richard Russell“, “Picture du Jour: US housing - better days ahead?” and “Video-o-rama: The yin and yang of China/US relations“. (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe’s webcast of July 31, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

Economy
The results of last week’s Survey of Business Confidence of the World achieved their best level since early October, reported Moody’s Economy.com. Business sentiment is improving across the globe and businesses’ broad assessments of current conditions and the outlook into 2010 have brightened meaningfully. However, despite the steady improvement in confidence, businesses are still cautious and the Survey results remain consistent with a global economy that is still in recession.

Click to enlarge:

 

02-08-09-11

Source: Moody’s Economy.com

According to the European Central Bank’s Q2 2009 bank lending survey, the number of banks tightening standards is falling across all loan types. Rebecca Wilder (News N Economics):

If you asked me, this constitutes good(ish) news. The credit crisis in Europe has likely passed.

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-12

Source: News N Economics

A snapshot of the week’s U.S. economic reports is provided below. (Click on the dates to see Northern Trust’s assessment of the various data releases.)

Friday, July 31, 2009
•Q2 GDP - the parachute has opened

Thursday,July 30, 2009
•Jobless Claims report makes a case that the labor market is improving

Wednesday, July 29, 2009
•Durable Goods Orders - decline in airline and defense masks improvement

Tuesday, July 28, 2009
•Case-Shiller Home Price Index - home prices are stabilizing
•Consumer Confidence Index slips in July

Monday, July 27, 2009
•Sales of new homes surge in June, inventories of unsold homes are sliding down

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book, released on Wednesday, indicated that the U.S. economic recession was becoming less severe. While still weak, some regions reported that the pace of the downturn had moderated.

According to the U.S. Commerce Department’s advance growth estimate, real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1% in the second quarter - smaller than the consensus expectation for a 1.5% decline. The rate of contraction slowed from the first quarter’s -6.4% as a result of a much smaller decline in investment, a smaller drop in inventories, less of a decline in exports, and strong government “stimulus” spending (+13.3% on an annualized basis - see chart below). However, consumer spending fell by a disappointing 1.2% in the second quarter.

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-13

Source: Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, July 31, 2009.

Summarizing the growth data, Paul Kasriel (Northern Trust) said:

… the worst is over, but the best is not yet at hand. The imminent recovery will take hold not with some sustainable explosion in one sector or another, but because some hitherto really weak sectors will stabilize and/or grow a little.

BCA Research added:

We expect a gradual recovery in the US economy in the months ahead, but the Fed will need to keep the policy setting extremely aggressive to achieve a self-reinforcing upturn in consumer confidence and spending.

Warning of a W-shaped recession, Nouriel Roubini (RGE Monitor) said (via Forbes):

The global recession may end toward the end of 2009 - instead of sooner - but the global recovery in 2010 will be anemic and well below trend as households, firms and financial institutions are constrained in their ability to borrow, lend and spend.

Meanwhile, a perfect storm of the following has inched a little closer on the radar of this cloudy global economic outlook: Persistently large fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation; monetization of such deficits that will eventually increase expected inflation; rising government bond yields; soaring oil prices; weak profits; still-falling job figures; and stagnant growth. It’s a storm that could blow the recovering world economy back into a double-dip recession by late 2010 or 2011.

Week’s economic reports
Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Date

Time (ET)

Statistic

For

Actual

Briefing Forecast

Market Expects

Prior

Jul 27

10:00 AM

New Home Sales

Jun

384K

355K

352K

346K

Jul 28

9:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

May

-17.06%

NA

-17.90%

-18.10%

Jul 28

10:00 AM

Consumer Confidence

Jul

46.6

49.0

49.0

49.3

Jul 29

8:30 AM

Durable Orders

Jun

-2.5%

-0.7%

-0.6%

1.3%

Jul 29

8:30 AM

Durables, Ex Transportation

Jun

1.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.8%

Jul 29

10:30 AM

Crude Inventories

07/24

+5.15M

NA

NA

-1.80M

Jul 29

2:00 PM

Fed’s Beige Book

-

-

-

-

-

Jul 30

8:30 AM

Initial Claims

07/25

584K

560K

575K

559K

Jul 31

8:30 AM

GDP-Adv.

Q2

-1.0%

-1.5%

-1.5%

-6.4%

Jul 31

8:30 AM

Core PCE

Q2

2.0%

2.3%

2.3%

1.1%

Jul 31

8:30 AM

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q2

0.2%

1.1%

1.0%

1.9%

Jul 31

8:30 AM

Employment Cost Index

Q2

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

Jul 31

9:45 AM

Chicago PMI

Jul

43.4

42.0

43.0

39.9

Source: Yahoo Finance, July 31, 2009.

Click here for a summary of Wells Fargo Securities’ weekly economic and financial commentary.

Across the pond, the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will make interest rate announcements on Thursday (August 6), while in the US economic highlights for the week include the following:

Monday, August 3
Construction spending, ISM Index and auto sales

Tuesday, August 4
Personal income and spending and pending home sales

Wednesday, August 5
ADP Employment, factory orders, and ISM services

Thursday, August 6
Initial jobless claims

Friday, August 7
Jobs data and consumer credit

Markets
The performance chart obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online shows how different global financial markets performed during the past week.

Click to enlarge:

02-08-09-14

Source: Wall Street Journal Online, July 31, 2009.

George Soros:

It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right, and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

Let’s hope the news items and quotes from market commentators included in the “Words from the Wise” review will assist Investment Postcards readers in adding considerable value to their balance sheets.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/4/09 09:20 
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  US told China it is committed to TIPS sales, according to source - DJ

DJ reports the U.S. govt pledged to China during last week's bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue it will remain committed to the issuance of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a person familiar with the situation told DJ. The pledge, which was made during the high-level talks in Washington, came at a time when Beijing, the largest holder of U.S. government debt, is increasingly wary of the safety of its investment due to a weak dollar and expectations of rising inflation in the U.S. The U.S. move will not only serve to appease Beijing to a certain degree, but could also fuel market expectations of a rise in the supply of the inflation-indexed securities in the long term, analysts said. "The U.S. is and will remain committed to TIPS issuance; we are currently conducting a policy review to determine the optimal proportional mix of TIPS within broader issuances and will continue to take into account the views of market participants," the person cited the U.S. government as saying in the draft communique of the dialogue. However, the words didn't appear in the final communique because of their "market sensitivity", said the person, who declined to be named.


 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/5/09 11:53 
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第三季度启动,股票、汇市与原油开始修正

本文网址:http://news.backchina.com/2009/8/5/gb2312_51597.html
充满希望的第二季度结束,华尔街创下将近六年来最亮丽的季度涨幅,然而,随着企业财报与第二季度的经济报告陆续出炉,自从三月初以来已经大幅上涨的股票、商品与风险型货币,如今似乎面临着修正的考验,而具有避险意涵的美元则从谷底回升。

在今年第二季度,道琼指数上涨了11%,自从3月9日低点以来则上升了29%,S&P 500指数也于第二季度成长了15%,这一切都是在反应全球经济可望于今年底开始复甦的预期。连带的,外汇市场上俗称的风险货币,像是欧元、英镑与澳币等,以及原油等大宗物资,也都在第二季度也都有令人讶异的表现。

股票与这些传统上的风险货币或商品,在走势上通常跟随着市场对全球经济未来的成长起舞,这就是所谓的风险关联性。简单来说,只要天下太平,投资人就倾向于出脱保值性的债券等资产,而转而追逐诸如股票、高收益货币或石油商品等具有较大成长潜力的投资工具,这也是为何国际原油在今年上半年由最低点每桶大约32美元曾经一度窜升至72美元以上的原因,而与原油价格息息相关的加拿大币,在七月中旬则对美元飙升至半年来的最高点,美元兑加币汇率最低跌至1.07附近。

然而,就在第二季度企业财报与经济报告陆续出炉之后,具有全球经济火车头地位的美国似乎仍无法提供投资人足够的复甦证据,虽然截至七月底的企业财报大抵优于市场预期,然而,细观其内容,盈馀成长主因係来自撙节支出或出脱资产,并无扎实的经济面带动,导致市场避险情节再度升高而开始出售股票与商品货币等所谓风险性资产。

此外,全美主要都市的房价在四、五月份都仍比去年同期下跌18%左右,消费信心在经过四、五月份优于预期的表现后,指数在六、七月份又回跌至50的水准之下,而美联储在七月29日发布的经济评估也大抵反应经济与信贷市场仍然紧俏的局面,都加剧了风险资产的修正幅度,例如原油29日一天之内便大跌了4美元至每桶63美元左右,欧元、英镑、澳币等风险货币也都因为美元避险地位回升而重挫。


 
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PostPosted: 8/6/09 22:28 
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中评社北京8月6日电/如期而至的美国经济数据轻而易举化解了不必要的过度悲观和市场恐慌。2009年7月31日,最新的第二季度美国经济核心数据显示出,最黑暗的时刻已然过去,周期轮转的力量正在投射复苏的丝丝曙光。

美国经济数据看上去很美

第一财经发表金融学博士程实文章分析,融合历史看新叶,数据之美显露如斯:

其一,核心增长数据大幅提振,衰退深化的趋势得以终结,2009年第二季度的美国实际GDP季环比增长年率初值为-1%,远低于调整后此前三个季度连续的-2.7%、-5.4%和-6.4%。

其二,核心增长数据大幅好于此前预期,美国经济的弹性出人意料,数据放出前彭博社的预期中值仅为-1.5%。

其三,内需恢复较为有力,美国经济自我修复能力较强,2009年第二季度国民购买总值季环比增长年率为-2.3%,较前一季度的-8.6%大幅回升。

其四,固定投资萎缩大幅放缓,金融条件转好的影响初步显现,2009年第二季度,美国实际固定投资收缩13.5%,明显好于上一季度的收缩39%,固定投资对经济增长的贡献也由此从上一季度的-6.62%回升至-1.82%。

其五,去库存化的负面影响趋向减弱,2009年第二季度实际企业库存进一步下降,对经济增长造成了0.83个百分点的损失,弱于上一季度造成的 2.63个百分点的损失,而且从有统计记录的历史看,库存变化连续拖累经济增长的最长时限为四个季度,由此可见本轮去库存化已然接近尾声,后续再库存周期 的滞后到来将有望作出经济增长正贡献。

其六,长期中贡献有限的贸易在非常时期对经济增长形成了有力支撑,2009年第一季度和第二季度贸易的增长贡献分别为2.64和1.38个百分点,而自1947年有统计数据以来,总共249个季度中贸易对增长却是平均造成了0.0915个百分点的损失。

其七,公共支出对经济增长的支撑作用进一步显现,2009年第二季度实际政府采购增长10.9%,较上一季度的收缩4.3%大幅转强,表明奥巴马政府的财政救助政策开始显露出明显的政策刺激效应。

复苏中的风险不容轻视

文章认为,美国经济下半年数据走强并重回覆苏指日可待,一段最为惊心动魄的衰退即将告一段落。但如果言尽于此,像大部分市场主体一样为美国经济超预期 走强而弹冠相庆,那么毫无疑问我们又将在“知其一而不知其二,知其末不知其本,详于此而略于彼”的片面解读中滑向非理性的盲目乐观。深入考量细节信息,美 国经济的复苏并不干脆,一系列潜藏于数据之“美”中的风险之“恶”更加值得深入洞悉,探寻复苏中不易察觉的风险,方可在渐进复苏的大趋势下和数据走强的短 期变化中,兼顾中长期的美国经济发展。

点点滴滴的风险同样让人高度警惕,融合历史看数据,数据之恶显露如此:

其一,时间序列上大幅调整后,数据显示金融危机的实际冲击超出此前市场感知,对金融危机的中长期影响也需随之谨慎调整。虽然自危机爆发并升级以来,市 场一直将其定位为百年难遇的金融危机,但美国实际经济数据的表现却始终没有显露出“大萧条以来最差”的特征,而此次新数据放出和旧数据调整将2007年危 机爆发以来美国经济的整体状况大幅下调:截至2009年第二季度,美国实际GDP季环比增长年率连续四个季度负增长,自1947年有数据统计以来尚属首 次;季度GDP收缩幅度之和为15.5个百分点,也已经超过1957~1958年衰退历史最高的14.5个百分点;国内购买总值更是自2007年第四季度 以来连续七个季度收缩,而在此之前的60年里,该指标最多只是连续三个季度收缩;美国经济分析局修正的数据则显示,从2007年第四季度至2008年第四 季度,美国GDP折年率下降了1.9%,大大高于此前0.8%的估算初值。由此可见,金融危机对实体经济的真实影响一直被低估了,而这种低估可能也延续至 对中长期复苏的判断,中长期复苏的强弱程度也不容乐观。

其二,预期超调的反覆出现可能导致经济复苏缺乏持续支撑。此次数据大调整的一个重要的潜在影响是改变了危机影响的时序结构,并反映出市场预期超调的特 殊现象。根据修正后的数据,2008年第二季度美国实际GDP季环比增长年率为1.5%,大幅弱于修正前的2.8%,而当时正值次贷危机爆发后美国经济第 一次显露出复苏迹象,事实表明,高估的经济增长数据让市场不合时宜地上调了预期,最终导致未能有效防范2008年9月的危机升级,迅速从过度乐观转向过度 悲观,进而引发恐慌性的信贷紧缩。值得关注的是,根据修正后的数据,危机谷底从2008年第四季度转变为2009年第一季度,修正前这两个季度的美国实际 GDP季环比增长年率为-6.3%和-5.5%,修正后则为-5.4%和-6.4%,谷底的后移以及第二季度增长率下调本身表明,2009年3月末市场预 期的上调可能过早和过大,这意味着第二季度以来预期超调给经济增长输送了额外的动力,而信心根据修正后数据的再调整可能将削弱增长动力。实际上,第二季度 预期超调的现象已经体现在消费者信心的最新变化中。

其三,消费主引擎的表现差强人意。2009年第二季度,美国实际消费萎缩1.2%,而此前一个季度一度增长了0.6%,1947年以来的249个季度 则平均增长3.48%,此前三个季度-3.5%、-3.1%到0.6%的持续改善趋势也被扭转;消费萎缩对经济增长造成0.88个百分点的拖累,而上一季 度消费则有0.44个百分点的贡献。2009年第一季度和第二季度消费增长及其贡献的截然不同表明,消费模式转变的抑制作用已经暂时超过可支配收入增加和 消费者信心增强的刺激作用,这意味着只要美国储蓄率从5月6.9%的历史高位持续上升,减税政策和信心提振将难以保障消费主引擎的恢复运转。如果下半年出 现“无消费的复苏”,那么不仅复苏本身将十分乏力,未来经济二次探底的可能性也随之加大。

其四,投资收缩幅度下降并不意味着房市根本改善。美国实际投资由实际固定投资和库存变化两部分组成,实际固定投资则由实际非住宅投资(即实际建筑投资 和实际设备投资)和实际住宅投资构成。2009年第二季度,实际投资收缩20.4%,较上一季度的收缩50.5%大幅改善,对经济增长的拖累也从上一季度 的8.98个百分点降为2.64个百分点,在增长贡献累计6.34个百分点的改善中,1.54个百分点来自库存贡献变化,3.8个百分点来自固定投资贡献 变化,而后者则源自3.35个百分点的非住宅投资贡献变化和0.45个百分点的住宅投资贡献变化。也就是说,住宅投资对实际投资整体改善的贡献仅为 7.1%,投资改善更大程度上受益于第二季度的信贷紧缩缓解,而非房市的回暖。与此相对应的,2009年第二季度美国实际住宅投资下降29.3%,延续了 前两个季度下降22.8%和33.2%的势头,自2006年以来连续14个季度收缩,而1947年以来最长的连续收缩期仅为11个季度。这进一步表明 2009年第二季度出现的美国现房销售和旧房销售连续3个月环比增长,建筑开工连续2个月环比增长的现象仅仅反映了美国房市正进入寻底、触底并筑底的一个 较长过程,并不意味着美国房市的反弹和复苏。

其五,贸易贡献伴随着“去全球化”的不利演化。2009年第二季度,贸易对经济增长贡献了1.38个百分点,其中出口造成了0.76个百分点的细微损 失,进口造成了2.14个百分点的贡献。值得注意的是,贸易对经济增长的贡献源自贸易总值的下降,出口的下降幅度低于进口的下降幅度产生了结构缺口。 2009年第二季度,美国出口下降了7%,进口下降了15.1%,下降幅度较第一季度的29.9%和36.4%均有所减小,而第一季度贸易对增长的贡献却 为2.64个百分点,高于第二季度。由此可见,贸易的不对称收缩,即出口收缩小于进口收缩,造就了贸易的增长贡献,而贸易整体收缩幅度越大经济增长贡献也 越大。这个危险的结构表明“去全球化”符合美国的短期利益,美国可以借助美元贬值减小出口的下降幅度,加大进口的下降幅度,进而实现结构优化并提高贸易的 增长贡献,这为美国贸易保护主义抬头和弱势美元政策埋下了伏笔。而对于全球经济和美国经济中长期复苏而言,去全球化和美元持续贬值的收益都难以抵补全球复 苏放缓和国际货币体系混乱带来的长期成本。

其六,公共开支结构风险较大。2009年第二季度,美国政府公共开支为增长贡献了1.12个百分点,从整体看,高于1947年以来249个季度0.6 个百分点的平均贡献,赤字压力过大的中长期风险进一步显现。更容易被市场忽视的是,结构风险同样较大:一方面,2009年第二季度联邦政府和州政府公共支 出分别作出了0.82和0.3个百分点的增长贡献,而1947年以来两者的平均贡献为0.26和0.34个百分点,这意味着联邦政府已然透支,而州政府却 发力不足,美国财政部的赤字增长理念并没有得到地方的认同,未来公共支出可能难以持续大幅增长;另一方面,2009年第二季度0.82个百分点的联邦政府 支出的增长贡献中,有0.67个百分点来自国防支出贡献,0.15个百分点来自非国防支出贡献,与此相对应的是,实际国防采购从上一季度的收缩5.1%转 变为增长13.3%,国防支出的大幅上升恐难长期持续,进而难以对增长形成长期支撑。

其七,通胀预期转变为实际通胀的可能性有所加大。虽然实证研究表明产出缺口和生产力水平对实际通胀的影响相对较大,但从最新的核心季度数据看,近期的 通胀预期已给物价水平造成了实际的上行压力。2009年6月,美国CPI同比增幅依旧为-1.4%,为1950年1月以来的最低值,PPI同比增幅则为 -4.6%,静态看依旧处于实际通缩的状况。但从动态演进看,预期上行对实际通胀上行的压力不断增大,导致2009年4至6月,CPI环比增幅呈现出从 0、0.1%到0.7%加速上升的趋势,PPI环比增幅则从4月和5月的0.3%和0.2%跃升至6月的1.8%,最新的核心季度数据则显示,第二季度核 心消费价格指数季环比年率增长2%,高于前一季度的1.1%。

其八,历史教训不容遗忘。在大萧条过程中,美国股市曾有过四次超过20%的反弹,因此2009年第二季度以来股市的反弹能否通过融资渠道改善刺激经济 有力复苏尚存较大变数。此外,大萧条过程中还两度出现短期经济数据大幅反弹的迹象,特别是1932年下半年的反弹更让市场产生了复苏将至的幻觉,结果突然 的趋势恶化让市场措手不及,最终使得1932年美国实际GDP收缩13%,成为大萧条期间最惨淡的年份。而且,在大萧条结束之后的1933~1937年 间,美国经济复苏看上去强劲有力,但实际上却饱含风险,最重要特征是失业率持续上升且美元贬值导致通胀发生,“低就业、高通胀的复苏”最终导致周期的再度 逆转,1938至1939年美国经济又一次陷入衰退。从现下的情况看,2009年第二季度核心数据放出后,可预期的美国经济未来走势兼具三大危险特征:即 失业率直奔10%,股市飙升已达40%,美元贬值加大通胀压力。如果美国政府过快且无序地退出超常规政策,并没有有效跟进促进中期增长和长期结构调整的后 续政策,那么美国经济中长期二次探底的风险将加大,可能体现为美国经济在几个季度的弱势反弹后于中期陷入增长停滞,或在几年之后的弱势复苏后于长期迅速进 入新的衰退周期。


 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/6/09 22:38 
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中评社怀俄明分社8月6日电,通讯员哈里:

The pullback is here, the question is how long it will last and how deep it will dip. After the pullback, if there is higher high, then the bull run will continue. If lower high followed by lower low occurs, then this 5 month rally is dead.



 
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PostPosted: 8/6/09 23:54 
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好好看看你这是在什么版在发贴。小心被咔嚓Neutral

harry wrote:

中评社怀俄明分社8月6日电,通讯员哈里:

The pullback is here, the question is how long it will last and how deep it will dip. After the pullback, if there is higher high, then the bull run will continue. If lower high followed by lower low occurs, then this 5 month rally is dead.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/6/09 23:56 
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兔哥战警现在给朝廷办事了

eveready wrote:
好好看看你这是在什么版在发贴。小心被咔嚓Neutral

harry wrote:

中评社怀俄明分社8月6日电,通讯员哈里:

The pullback is here, the question is how long it will last and how deep it will dip. After the pullback, if there is higher high, then the bull run will continue. If lower high followed by lower low occurs, then this 5 month rally is dead.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/6/09 23:58 
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我也要少再此版闲聊,不然要被呆哥咔嚓了。

1001 wrote:
兔哥战警现在给朝廷办事了

eveready wrote:
好好看看你这是在什么版在发贴。小心被咔嚓Neutral

harry wrote:

中评社怀俄明分社8月6日电,通讯员哈里:

The pullback is here, the question is how long it will last and how deep it will dip. After the pullback, if there is higher high, then the bull run will continue. If lower high followed by lower low occurs, then this 5 month rally is dead.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/7/09 00:06 
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JOURNALIST最大无畏了. Laughing
我报告的内容可比上面千万字有用多了.Rolling Eyes

eveready wrote:
好好看看你这是在什么版在发贴。小心被咔嚓Neutral

harry wrote:

中评社怀俄明分社8月6日电,通讯员哈里:

The pullback is here, the question is how long it will last and how deep it will dip. After the pullback, if there is higher high, then the bull run will continue. If lower high followed by lower low occurs, then this 5 month rally is dead.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/7/09 00:08 
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HARRY 竟然入党了。

怪不得CAKE 鸭子不服气。

harry wrote:
JOURNALIST最大无畏了. Laughing
我报告的内容可比上面千万字有用多了.Rolling Eyes

eveready wrote:
好好看看你这是在什么版在发贴。小心被咔嚓Neutral

harry wrote:

中评社怀俄明分社8月6日电,通讯员哈里:

The pullback is here, the question is how long it will last and how deep it will dip. After the pullback, if there is higher high, then the bull run will continue. If lower high followed by lower low occurs, then this 5 month rally is dead.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/7/09 00:11 
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Joined: 12/12/07 15:43
Posts: 40327
D56扩招党员,拉俺进来的.
YAHOO wrote:
HARRY 竟然入党了。

怪不得CAKE 鸭子不服气。

harry wrote:
JOURNALIST最大无畏了. Laughing
我报告的内容可比上面千万字有用多了.Rolling Eyes

eveready wrote:
好好看看你这是在什么版在发贴。小心被咔嚓Neutral

harry wrote:

中评社怀俄明分社8月6日电,通讯员哈里:

The pullback is here, the question is how long it will last and how deep it will dip. After the pullback, if there is higher high, then the bull run will continue. If lower high followed by lower low occurs, then this 5 month rally is dead.



 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/7/09 00:13 
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哈里,不能这里灌啊.不然闲鸭蛋有意见了.


 
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 Post subject: Re: The Big Picture
PostPosted: 8/7/09 00:18 
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我说的可是我的研究成果啊.难道这里只能转贴?

dave_liu wrote:

哈里,不能这里灌啊.不然闲鸭蛋有意见了.


 
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